Strategy guides

A kick in Penalty Bluff has no luck and no reflexes: two secret picks decide it. So you win by reading your rival and hiding your own habits. These guides show how.

Each one stands on its own. If you are new, read how to play first, then start with how to read your rival. Curious why a penalty works like a coin toss between two minds? Try the game theory guide. Stuck on a career rival, or planning an evening with friends? Skip straight to that page.

• How to read your rivalSix habits almost every player shows, and how to use them without becoming predictable.
• The game theory of a penalty kickMatching pennies, mixed strategies and what economists learned from real penalties.
• Why you can't be randomYour brain is a poor coin. What research shows, and how to fake a better one.
• When to use the power shot and the long reachWhat an exact analysis of perfect play says about timing the two tricks.
• A field guide to the career rivalsA hint for each of the fourteen rivals, without spoiling their dossiers.
• Penalty Bluff with friendsPass-and-play etiquette, online rooms, house rules, tournaments and filming.

Three ideas behind every guide

1. Random is the floor. If you pick every zone equally often and in no pattern, no keeper can expect to save more than one kick in three against you in Classic, or one in five in Pro (tricks aside).
2. People are not random. They repeat what worked, run from what failed and switch too often. Spotting one of these habits is how you beat the floor.
3. A read is also a habit. Lean on what you have spotted, but never lock on, or your rival will read you back.